Performify's Picks: "EliteXC: Unfinished Business" (2024)

Tonight’s nationally televised CBS event, “EliteXC: Unfinishes Business,”
features a
main event of EliteXC middleweight champion Robbie Lawler putting his
title on the line against Scott Smith, as well as an EliteXC
welterweight title fight between Jake Shields vs. Nick Thompson.

Results of 4-2 for +4.57 units on Performify’s Picks for UFC Fight Night 14 and “Affliction: Banned” brings my recent running total for my public predictions to 44-40 for +13.975
units.

As usual, all lines are current market lines from MMAjunkie.com’s recommended sportsbook, Bodog. If you’re interested in learning more about
betting on MMA, check out the series of articles in our

MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering Guide series. You can also stay up to date with the latest MMA and UFC odds directly via our new UFC Odds page.

Robbie Lawler (-240) vs. Scott Smith (+190)

Robbie Lawler, the reigning EliteXC middleweight champion, holds a 17-4 MMA record. The highly ranked 26-year-old middleweight trains with Matt Hughes’ H.I.T. Squad and most recently fought Scott Smith to a disappointing “no contest” due to an inadvertent eye poke. Lawler has recent wins over Murilo “Ninja” Rua, Frank Trigg, and Joey Villasenor. Lawler’s most recent loss was to Jason “Mayhem” Miller in the ICON Sport organization in September 2006.

Formerly a contestant on the fourth season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” Smith holds a 13-4 MMA record and is 29 years old. Smith amassed a 1-3 record in the UFC and left the organization after consecutive losses to Patrick Cote and Ed Herman. Smith is known for his toughness and punching power, and he has a solid place on the UFC highlight reels for his stunning knockout over Pete Sell at The Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale.

The current betting line gives Lawler a 70.59% chance of winning and Smith a 34.48% chance of pulling the upset. Lawler was winning their first fight pretty clearly before the eye poke: MMAjunkie.com had the fight 20-18 for Lawler through the first two rounds. However, the previous fight was not significantly one-sided in which I would assign Lawler much more than the current 70% chance of winning. The line for their first fight was almost identical with Lawler (-250) and Smith (+200), and I think that is still an accurate description of the likely outcomes of this fight.

Jake Shields (-340) vs. Nick Thompson (+260)

Cesar Gracie student Jake Shields holds a 20-4-1 MMA record and is 29 years old. Shields is a former champion of both the Rumble on the Rock and Shooto organizations, and he trains alongside the Diaz brothers and Gilbert Melendez. Shields has a long grappling pedigree, including a third place finish at the prestigious ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship in 2005. Shields is riding an impressive nine-fight win streak that includes wins over Yushin Okami, Carlos Condit and Mike Pyle. Shields is not messing around, either; he has finished his past four opponents in the first round.

Former BodogFIGHT welterweight champion Nick “The Goat” Thompson holds an extensive 36-9-1 MMA record despite being only 27 years old. Thompson is riding a crazy 12-fight win streak that goes back to a loss against Karo Parysian at UFC 59 in April 2006. Thompson’s streak contains wins over the impressive Eddie Alvarez, onetime UFC fighter Ansar Chalangov, and recent UFC addition Chris Wilson. “The Goat” wrestled for the University of Wisconsin and currently trains under coach Greg Nelson at Minnesota Martial Arts Academy, alongside Sean Sherk and Brock Lesnar.

Thompson is being assigned almost a 28% chance of pulling the upset, compared to a 77% win percentage for Shields. Thompson is tough, and this should be a fantastic battle between two talented fighters, but I expect that Shields’ superior grappling skills will pull him through to victory.

Antonio Silva (-575) vs. Justin Eilers (+375)

Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva holds a 10-1 MMA record and trains with American Top Team. Silva has won three fights in a row, including his most recent split-decision victory over former UFC heavyweight champion Ricco Rodriguez, since suffering a disappointing loss to Eric Pele in BodogFIGHT in December 2006. Silva is strong and extremely agile for his size, and as you would expect from any Brazilian MMA fighter named Silva, has a strong background in jiu jitsu. The former super-heavyweight fighter will turn 29 in September.

UFC veteran Justin Eilers holds a 20-7-1 MMA record and was 1-3 in the UFC organization, dropping three in a row in the organization on his way out the door. The losses came to Paul Buentello, Andrei Arlovksi, and Brandon Vera. Eilers then won seven in row in smaller organizations, including the WEC, before losing to Pedro Rizzo at the first Art of War show, in March 2007. Eilers has rebounded by winning three straight, including his most recent win over Wade Shipp to claim the IFC heavyweight title.

At -575, Silva is being given an 85% chance to win, with Eilers being given a 21% chance of pulling the upset. Despite coming in as a heavy favorite, this fight should be Silva’s first serious test in a while. If Silva wants to be in the elite MMA heavyweight ranks, he will need a dominant performance over a mid-level fighter such as Eilers.

Nick Diaz (-600 via Bookmaker) vs. Thomas Denny (+450)

UFC veteran Nick Diaz holds a 17-7 MMA record and is only 24 years old. He holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Cesar Gracie and trains alongside his brother Nate, Gilbert Melendez and Jake Shields. Diaz possesses not only strong grappling skills but also very good boxing skills, courtesy his boxing training under former WBA and WBC World Champion Luisito Espinosa and Olympic boxing gold medalist Andre Ward.

Thomas “Wildman” Denny holds a 26-16 MMA record. He was knocked out by Joe Camacho (10-12-3 MMA) in King of the Cage in January, and he should not present any real challenge for Diaz here. Most of Denny’s wins come by way of submission, and Diaz is in another league in grappling skills. Look for a one-sided fight, with Diaz beating up Denny on the feet before eventually ending the fight by choke. Diaz is expected to win fight slightly better than 86% of the time, and I think based on Denny’s history, Diaz should win this fight closer to 95% of the time. Denny’s only real chance is a “lucky” punch or a fight ending cut, and Diaz’s propensity to cut has been reduced thanks to him recently undergoing recent plastic surgery. It seemed to have a decent effect during his latest win over Muhsin Corbbrey.

Shayna Baszler (-220) vs. Cristiane Santos (+180)

Shayna Baszler is 27 years old, trains with standout heavyweight Josh Barnett, and holds a 9-4 MMA record. She has won four fights in a row, all first-round submissions. She is being given a 69% chance to win over opponent Cristiane Santos. “Cyborg” trains at Chute Boxe alongside husband Evangelista Santos, who also goes by the nickname “Cyborg.” Santos has a 4-0 MMA record, and I like her to pull the upset here, seeing how she’s been given a 36% chance to win by, according to the betting line.

Wilson Reis (-150) vs. Bryan Caraway (+120)

Brazilian-born Wilson Reis holds a 4-0 MMA record and is only 23 years old. He is a decorated and skilled grappler, with notable achievements including winning the brown belt division at the Mundials in 2004, and he has won three of his four fights by way of submission. Reis holds a BJJ black belt under famed Brazilian trainer Roberto Godoi.

Brian Caraway is likewise a submission fighter, holding a 10-2 MMA record, with 90% of his wins by way of submission. “Kid Lightning” is riding a seven-fight win streak. He is 28 years old and has been fighting professionally since 2004. Caraway most recently fought on the “Strikeforce: Melendez vs. Thomson” card, where he beat Alvin Cacdac with a quick rear naked choke.

This lightweight battle will be shown on the Showtime portion of the card, and it very well could steal the entire event. This should be a close fight, as indicated by the betting line, which gives Reis a 60% chance of winning. Both guys are excellent MMA grapplers, but I have to give the edge here to Reis due to superior grappling skills.

Rafael Cavalcante (-500) Travis Galbraith (+350)

Brazilian Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante holds a 6-1 MMA record, with his only loss coming via disqualification against Marcio “Pe de Pano” Cruz in the IFL last summer. “Feljao” holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and he trains grappling under Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and striking under Anderson Silva. Any other questions? At the current line, Cavalcante is an 83% favorite over Canadian Travis Galbraith. Galbraith holds a 15-5 MMA record and is 3-2 in his past five, going back to a TKO loss to Kazuhiro Nakamura at PRIDE 32 in October 2006. Galbraith also faced off against fellow Canadian Georges St. Pierre back in 2002, where he was TKO’d in the first two minutes. Galbraith should be in trouble here, with Cavalcante holding a significant edge in both striking and grappling. Galbraith’s one advantage is in professional MMA experience; however, given Cavalcante’s elite-level training partners, I expect he’ll be well prepared despite only having seven professional fights.

Performify’s public picks for “EliteXC: Unfinished Business”:

• Jake Shields (-340) : 1.7u to win .5u
• Nick Diaz (-600) : 12u to win 2u
• Cristiane Santos (+180) : .5u to win .9u
• Wilson Reis (-150) : 1.5u to win 1u
• Rafael Cavalcante (-500) : 5u to win 1u